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Here is how to play the altcoin game - for newbies & champs
I have been here for many previous altcoin seasons (2013,2017 etc) and wanted to share knowedle. It's a LOOONG article. The evaluation of altcoins (i.e not Bitcoin) is one of the most difficult and profitable exercises. Here I will outline my methodology and thinking but we have to take some things as a given. The first is that the whole market is going up or down with forces that we can't predict or control. Bitcoin is correlated with economic environments, money supply increases, safe havens such as Gold, hype and country regulations. This is an impossible mix to analyze and almost everyone fails at it. That's why you see people valuing Bitcoin from $100 to $500k frequently. Although I am bullish on the prospects of Bitcoin and decentralization and smart contract platforms, this is not the game I will be describing. I am talking about a game where you try to maximize your BTC holdings by investing in altcoins. We win this game even if we are at a loss in fiat currency value. To put it another way:
If you are not bullish in general on cryptocurrencies you have no place in investing or trading cryptocurrencies since it's always a losing proposition to trade in bubbles, a scientifically proven fact. If on the other hand you are then your goal is to grow your portfolio more than you would if holding BTC/ETH for example.
Bitcoin is the big boy
How the market works is not easily identifiable if you haven't graduated from the 2017 crypto university. When there is a bull market everything seems amazingly profitable and things keep going up outgrowing Bitcoin by orders of magnitude and you are a genius. The problem with this is that it only works while Bitcoin is going up a little bit or trades sideways. When it decides to move big then altcoins lose value both on the way up and on the way down. The second part is obvious and proven since all altcoins from 2017 are at a fraction of their BTC value (usually in the range of 80% or more down). Also, when BTC is making a big move upwards everyone exits altcoins to ride the wave. It is possible that the altcoin market behaves as an inversed leveraged ETF with leakage where in a certain period while Bitcoin starts at 10k and ends at 10k for example, altcoins have lost a lot of value because of the above things happening.
We are doing it anyway champ!
OK so we understand the risks and just wanna gambol with our money right? I get it. Why do that? Because finding the ideal scenario and period can be extremely profitable. In 2017 several altcoins went up 40x more than BTC. But again, if you don't chose wisely many of them have gone back to zero (the author has first hand experience in this!), they have been delisted and nobody remembers them. The actual mentality to have is very important and resembles poker and other speculative games: A certain altcoin can go up in value indefinitely but can only lose it's starting investment. Think about it. You either lose 1 metric or gain many many more. Now that sounds amazing but firstly as we said we have the goal to outperform our benchmark (BTC) and secondly that going up in value a lot means that the probability is quite low. There is this notion of Expected Value (EV) that poker players apply in these kind of situations and it goes like that. If you think that a certain coin has a probability let's say 10% to go up 10X and 90% probability it goes to zero it's an even bet. If you think that probability is 11% then it's a good bet, a profitable bet and you should take it. You get the point right? It's not that it can only go 10X or 0X, there is a whole range of probability outcomes that are too mathematical to explain here and it doesn't help so much because nobody can do such analysis with altcoins. See below on how we can approximate it.
How to evaluate altcoins
A range of different things to take into account outlined below will form our decision making. Not a single one of them should dictate 100% of our strategy.
It's all about market cap. Repeat after me. The price of a coin doesn't mean anything. Say it 10 times until you believe it. I can't remember how many times I had conversations with people that were comparing coins using their coin price instead of their market cap. To make this easy to get.
If I decide because the sky is blue to make my coin supply 100 Trillion FoolCoins with a price of $0.001 and there is another WiseCoin with a supply of 100 Million and price of $1 then FoolCoins are more expensive. - Alex Fin's Cap Law
This is done usually in the stock world and it means that each company has some fundamental value that includes it's assets, customers, growth prospects, sector prospects and leadership competence but mostly centered in financial measures such as P/E ratios etc. Valuation is a proper economic discipline by itself taught in universities. OK, now throw everything out of the window!. This kind of analysis is impossible in vague concepts and innovations that are currently cryptocurrencies. Ethereum was frequently priced at the fictional price of gas when all financial systems on earth run on the platform after decades (a bit of exaggeration here). No project is currently profitable enough to justify a valuation multiple that is usually equal to P/E in the thousands or more. As such we need to take other things into account. What I do is included in the list below:
Check Github. You need to make sure there is active development for the platform and it's a very bad sign if the project is either keeping the code closed source or even worse there is simply no development. No projects are "complete".
Check Website. If the website is written in bad English the Chinese google translate type it means that they are not serious enough to produce an unbreakable decentralized project. If you can't write English you can't change the world, period. That's a deal breaker.
Check Team's Linkedin. Numerous projects have either fake Linkedin accounts or the team is comprised mainly by unexperienced employees that are even shown to be working in other companies currently.
Check backers. Projects that have Binance, Coinbase or Silicon Valley VC funds backing them are way more legit but way more overpriced too!
One of my favorite ways to value altcoins that is based on the same principle in the stock market is to look at peers and decide what is the maximum cap it can grow to. As an example you take a second layer Ethereum solution that has an ICO and you want to decide if you will enter or not. You can take a look at other coins that are in the same business and compare their market caps. Thinking that your coin will outperform by a lot the top coins currently is overly optimistic so I usually take a lower valuation as a target price. If the initial offering is directly implying a valuation that is more than that then there is no room to grow according to my analysis and I skip it. Many times this has proven me wrong because it's a game theory problem where if many people think irrationally in a market it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But since there is opportunity cost involved, in the long run, getting in initial offerings that have a lot of room to grow will pay off as a strategy.
In 2017 the sexiest sector was platforms and then coins including privacy ones. Platforms are obviously still a highly rated sector because everything is being built on them, but privacy is not as hot as it used to be. In 2018 DEXes were all they hype but still people are massively using centralized exchanges. In 2020 Defi is the hottest sector and it includes platforms, oracles and Defi projects. What I am saying is that a project gets extra points if it's a Defi one in 2020 and minus points if it's a payment system that will conquer the world as it was in 2017 because that's old news. This is closely related to the next section.
Needless to say that the crypto market is a worse FOMO type of inexperienced trigger happy yolo investors , much worse than the Robinhood crowd that drove a bankrupt company's stock 1200% after they declared bankruptcy. The result is that there are numerous projects that are basically either vaporware or just so overhyped that their valuation has no connection to reality. Should we avoid those kind of projects? No and I will explain why. There are many very good technically projects that had zero hype potential due to incompetent marketing departments that made them tank. An example (without shilling because I sold out a while back) is Quantum Resistant Ledger. This project has amazing quantum resistant blockchain, the only one running now, has a platform that people can build tokens and messaging systems and other magnificent stuff. Just check how they fared up to now and you will get the point. A project *needs* to have a hype factor because you cannot judge it as normal stocks that you can do value investing like Warren Buffet does where a company will inevitable post sales and profitability numbers and investors will get dividends. Actually the last sentence is the most important: No dividends. Even projects that give you tokens or coins as dividends are not real dividends because if the coin tanks the value of the dividend tanks. This is NOT the case with company stocks where you get dollars even if the company stock tanks. All that being said, I would advice against betting on projects that have a lot of hype but little substance (but that should be obvious!).
How to construct your portfolio
My strategy and philosophy in investing is that risk should be proportional to investment capital. That means that if you are investing 100K in the crypto market your portfolio should be very different than someone investing 1K because 10% annual gains are nothing in the latter while they are very significant in the former. Starting from this principle each individual needs to construct a portfolio according to how much risk he wants to take. I will emphasize two important concepts that play well with what I said. In the first instance of a big portfolio you should concentrate on this mantra: "Diversification is the only free meal in finance". In the case of a small portfolio then this mantra is more important: "Concentrate to create wealth, diversify to maintain wealth". Usually in a big portfolio you would want to hold some big coins such as BTC and ETH to weather the ups and downs explained in previous paragraphs while generating profits and keep progressively smaller parts of your portfolio for riskier investments. Maybe 50% of this portfolio could be big caps and 10% very risky initial offerings. Adapting risk progressively to smaller portfolios makes sense but I think it would be irrational to keep more than 30% of a portfolio no matter what tied to one coin due to the very high risk of bankruptcy.
The altseason is supposedly coming every 3 months. Truth is that nobody can predict it but altcoins can be profitable no matter what. Forget about maximalists who are stuck in their dogmas. Altcoins deliver different value propositions and it makes sense because we are very far from a situation where some project offers everything like Amazon and we wouldn't even want that in the first place since we are talking about decentralization and not a winner takes all and becomes a monster kind of scenario! Some last minute advice:
Stay out of paid telegram/discord pump groups. They are deadly for your wallet.
Avoid jumping on overhyped coins that have pumped massively during the last days without any very important news.
Don't keep coins in obscure exchanges for too long or you will get burned with certainty.
Stop thinking that your coin will 1000x and overtake Bitcoin!
P.S If you find value in reading this and want more weekly consider subscribing to my newsletterhere
EDC Blockchain and ECRO System in the List of Major Blockchain Events 2019!
https://preview.redd.it/1n0i4hayx4a41.jpg?width=1307&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a1ddf95e43b81cacc10b29824c162c2d19bc2fc0 2019 showed that the Blockchain industry justifies the status of a technological revolution. Bitcoin's capitalization exceeded that of countries such as Turkey, Pakistan and South Africa. And China, India, and Nigeria have already bought cars, real estate and various services for an EDC coin! Let's think about these and other events of last year, which had the greatest resonance. Adoption of the cryptography law in China Speculation and fiction are officially over! China at the state level said "yes" to Blockchain technology! The Chinese Communist Party now directly manages the Central Cryptography Agency. The agency will promote and support cryptography research, protect intellectual property rights and promote the development of public/private key technology, according to Primitive Foundation partner Dovey Wan. Against this background, the Central Bank of China started talking about creating its own stablecoin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the blockchain will be the main technology for important innovation breakthroughs! The Crypto market reacted instantly: bitcoin rose by more than $2000 in one week of October (from $7500 to $9500), while EDC quotations reached 1 US cents. The optimism then decreased again when it became clear that the Chinese are still fundamentally distinguishing between the notions of "Blockchain" and "Cryptocurrencies". Bitcoin futures launch On September 23, 2019, ICE Corporation (International Exchange) started trading daily and month bitcoin futures on the Bakkt platform. The platform was officially approved by the U.S. Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and bitcoin deposits of users are insured for $125 million. The appearance of this platform was associated with certain expectations: the growth of bitcoin to $ 20,000, and the accession of institutional investors. As we already know, these forecasts did not come true, and the peak daily trading volume did not exceed $43 million. Nevertheless, the expectations from this news remain high: both the prestige and liquidity of the market can only improve. Project Libra's failure On June 18, the release of Facebook's own cryptographic currency called Libra was to be launched. By all primary signs, the coin could become a market favorite, and the project participants included Visa, Mastercard, eBay, and other major online platforms. However, it did not work out: problems with regulators reached the hearings in the U.S. Congress, where Mark Zuckerberg himself had to personally promise that Libra will not be launched until all regulators approve of it, and Facebook may even leave the founders. Project stoppage TON GRAM Token from Telegram is another "loser" in the big games of life. The developers managed to make the initial offer (ICO) for 1.7 billion dollars and even presented a compiled test wallet. But the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expressed confidence that GRAM at the token trading stage was sold illegally, falling under the definition of a security. Now Pavel Durov is facing long legal proceedings, and the project is frozen for an indefinite period. This "triumph" of U.S. market regulators once again underscores the fact that big money at the stage of the birth of new players on the crypto market plays a much smaller role than the real value of coins and technology. EDC Blockchain Coin constructor for entrepreneurs Producers of goods and services and businessmen in various niches can now create their own bonus token or a full-fledged cryptographic currency using PoS mining without having at their disposal a team of IT professionals, ICO access opportunities or huge investments. Specialists of the EDC Blockchain platform offered the market a technological coin constructor and ready-made package solutions for the development of small and medium businesses. It has never been easier to token and scale any project or startup. The constructor is available to all users of the EDC platform, which offers customers a number of bonuses (for example, an automatic listing of new coins on partner exchanges, marketing support and advertising at the level of its international community). A real step forward in business tokenization. Start of a self-contained blockchain ecosystem ECRO System Specialists of ECRO Chain Holding, under whose leadership ECRO System projects function, were able to create a "bridge" between the crypto industry and real business. ECRO System provides an environment for cooperation between manufacturers, sellers and consumers anywhere in the world, including global marketplace, exchange, trading platform, a launching platform for startups, additional services and even an academy for educational purposes. In a global eco-system using a blockchain, a variety of goods and services are safely sold and purchased, any coins are exchanged conveniently and quickly, and new technology projects are made possible. And the ecosystem is expanding geographically by training its own marketers. Application of blockchain, technologies of an artificial intellect, a crypto-merchant allow ECRO System to create conditions for the reliable digital economy. Crypto trading authorization for German banks The Bundesrat passed a law allowing German banking institutions to officially sell and buy cryptocurrencies. Discussions in financial circles are still ongoing, as confidential transfers open up space for illegal transactions and money laundering. But the fact is that Vice-Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz advocated the creation of a national digital currency, and Sven Hildebrandt, head of the consulting company DLC, is confident that Germany will become a "cryptocurrency paradise". Official cooperation of Ukraine with Binance Crypto Exchange Binance International exchange has signed an official memorandum on cooperation with the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. Popularization and legalization of the cryptographic industry in Ukraine led to a sharp increase in the interest of global exchange and trading services to start working in one of the largest European countries. On November 6, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a draft law on the implementation of FATF rules, which regulates all basic concepts and legal aspects of virtual assets that can be considered as property or can be used for payment and investment purposes. The draft law on asset tokenization, which will allow private and public companies to conduct commercial transactions with their assets in the form of tokens or crypto-stocks, is under development. We are living at the peak of historical technology development when the speed of real technical changes outpaces even the speed of human imagination. The year 2020 could be a "quantum leap" in cryptographic technology around the world. The world economy, as well as small and medium businesses, seems to be best prepared for the wide range of opportunities offered by the Blockchain. The EDC Blockchain and ECRO System project teams will continue to develop their products and services in order to maximize the quality of life of modern people through blockchain innovations. We wish you a successful 2020 year filled with new technologies! viahttps://blockchain.mn #edcblockchain #cryptocurrency #global_platform #graphene #lpos #coin_constructor #masternode #leasing #edc #edccoin #edcmining
Bitcoin: Breaking All the Rules: Idiocracy: Sad vs. Happy Ending?: To Be Continued
4 years ago my girlfriend and I were trekking through Costa Rica, listening to a podcast about the silk road and a dark web. It was such a great listen and the content was something right out of a science fiction novel. Hackers, drug and arms dealers, digital rebels. The podcast went on to talk about how they used a digital currency. They talked about how it didn't have a bank, but rather it had kiosks that you could use to purchase these Bitcoins. In my imagination, they put money into an atm and out popped a gold coin that proved they owned that digital currency, silly. Who would have thought this podcast was revealing an asset with the potential to turn rags to riches?! I just wasn't able to wrap my head around what was happening then. In my defense I was pleasantly distracted on an adventure in Costa Rica! I couldn't put the pieces together, the internet and currency were uniting under a blanket of anonymity. Must have been too busy looking for Toucans and Scarlet Macaws. I've never been one to invest, never had the savings. Rough past and not a lot of income. Never smart with money. I was only able to go to Costa Rica because of a tiny inheritance from my grandmother passing away. If only I had spent the rest ($5,000) on those Bitcoin thingies! I went about my life occasionally hearing about Bitcoin and I would always remember that podcast. Had I just opened up Google and followed up more, fuckin hindsight... Years go by and i hear how Bitcoin suffered some big losses here and there but I kept my distance. This brings us to January 2017... Money is extremely tight as always and we've started taking on credit card debt with daily expenses and things are adding up. One day I'm in the men's library (shitter) and I read headlines saying Bitcoin is making a monster run. I decide then and there that I won't let this opportunity pass me by, "it's time to get ahead" says an internal voice. "But, you have no nest egg" says another. I didn't know what FOMO was at the time, but this was the ultimate case. I threw caution to the wind and went in hard towards a dream of financial freedom. It's as if the stars were going to align and I would finally catch a break. I took out a loan for 10k and stocked my digital wallet. Now I just needed to sit back and watch this thing continue to run. Financial freedom, here we come!!! News Flash: South Korea is looking to ban cryptocurrency trading India announces they are going to crack down South Korea not banning cryptocurrency but no longer anonymous trading Bitfinex/Tether subpoena Coins being stolen by the millions US to discuss cryptocurrency regulations China bans citizens from foreign exchanges Binance "hacked" Mt Gox trustee dumping hundreds of thousands of coins on the open market Market manipulation Bitcoin is a bubble I mean talk about a cluster fuck the moment I entered the trade! I feel like I bought tickets to Bitcoin's show and the asshole said peace and dropped the mic. This was one of the worst decisions I've ever made, and I've done a lot of dumb shit in my life. Taking out credit on an investment?! Brilliant! I made the biggest mistake in the book (one I had clearly never read) which is don't put in what you're not willing to lose. I've read a lot of posts from veterans on Reddit who paint the perfect picture of my portrait "The Idiot Rookie and the Bitcoin" it's a masterpiece. I do commend a lot of you guys, I've seen some great advice. Advice that I wish I had read before diving head first into this world. I've always been a tough lesson kind of guy and class is in session. Hopefully I can graduate. All aboard the emotional roller-coaster of cryptocurrency with too much invested! The last 2 months have been an experience like none other. So many ups and downs. Tonight I'm restless, so I type this story for you. This is the story about a dumbass guy who was grasping at straws and still is. His intentions may be good, but who knows how he'll fare. Sure a lot of you say cut your losses, but how do you cut ties with something you've fallen in love with? How do you turn your back on the tech after the fact? Buckle Up It Gets Worse: Last weekend I finally broke the news to my fiance that I had done this behind her back potential increasing our debt if this thing blows up. Let's say things aren't the greatest in the love life. Trust for the first time in 4.5 years of our relationship is in question. So here we are. The price is dropping hard, again. Things are a mess but I still hold on for dear life. Strange thing is that its starting to have no effect on me. Despite the ramifications of a complete crash, you think I would. Maybe I'd be a great investor if I didn't have debt on the line. All I do now is research blockchain day in and day out. I've done so everyday since things went south. Figured I should learn what the hell I heard about in that podcast so many years ago. Should learn about what I overextended myself with a loan for. It really is brilliant. Blockchain is without a doubt a huge piece to our future. All the ups, downs, sad truths to loved ones, fist pumps when I see a price pump and the swear words when they dunno (today I got caught in Ast after I fucked up my stop loss...) I've made countless mistakes and I'm sure I'll make more. I keep pushing myself towards becoming a knowledgeable tradeinvestor in hopes that I'll stop making mistakes when I do both. I'm definitely a HODLer until then, with a coin I'm not passionate about (AST) and a few that I am. It's been over 2 months since entry. My skin is leather now, the stress of the past few months have turned my insides to stone. I'm down 60% and I'm still optimistic (or in denial?). I'm bleeding just like the rest of you, maybe even more with the interest. Will my decision to HODL be the right one? I guess only time will tell. My fiance asked me if I'm willing to accept the loss if a full crash occurs or at least willing to manage the interest until the investment turns positive. I'm 99% sure that I am, now that I know what this technology is all about. Are you? To be continued... edit the reason I share my story is to not add to the sentiment of fear, but rather to give hope to other new investors. Just maybe one person, new to cryptocurrency reads this and says, ok things aren't as bad for me, I'll HODL with this dude. One less person quitting cryptocurrency is a win in my book.
The hackers stole $41 million in Bitcoin, which was announced just a few hours after “some unscheduled server maintenance” by Zhao. Along with Binance, there have been three other major exchanges hacked already in 2019 – Cryptopia, DragonEx, and Bithumb. Since the hacking, Coinfirm has been waiting the movements of the stolen bitcoin ... ETH is digital money. If you’ve heard of Bitcoin, ETH has many of the same features. It is purely digital, and can be sent to anyone anywhere in the world instantly. The supply of ETH isn’t controlled by any government or company – it is decentralized, and it is scarce. People all over the world use ETH to make payments, as a store of value, or as collateral. The latest news about ... Traditional approaches to understanding the value of bitcoin as money have failed. In this article we explore how function, faith and the availability of alternative assets will keep bitcoin ... "Bitcoin is digital money. It is stored on a computer so you can't hold it like a normal coin. If you want a new toy, food, or clothes, you need to buy it with money. You can use banknotes or coins, but you can also use bitcoin. You pay with an app on your phone." Bitcoin for Teenagers. Teenagers are a generation that is most accustomed to technologies. Many teenagers at least heard about ... Binance Sued by Fisco Exchange On Monday. September 14, 2020, Fisco filed suit in a 33-page document in the Northern District Court of California, United States.Fisco argued that Binance's weak Know Your Customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) policies were weak and did not meet industry standards. On Friday, July 24, a Federal Court announced that the world’s largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin gets the status of “money” under the Washington, D.C., Money Transmitters Act. Chief Judge Beryl ... Binance P2P Crypto Trading Tops $4.2 Billion in One Year The peer-to-peer trading arm of the world’s biggest crypto exchange is seeing double digit growth. CEO Changpeng Zhao explains its strategy. By Adriana Hamacher. 5 min read. Nov 3, 2020 Nov 3, 2020 Bitcoin. P2P trading is most popular in countries which restrict cryptocurrencies, like China. Image: Shutterstock. In brief. One year ... Binance cryptocurrency exchange - We operate the worlds biggest bitcoin exchange and altcoin crypto exchange in the world by volume On the regulatory front, however, the Binance CEO acknowledged that while they want to increase the freedom of money, each country has different regulations that can make this challenging. “When we look at the regulations around the world, most people understand I think that the more regulation there is, the stronger the industry will be. Binance Review: What is Binance? Binance is an exchange that hosts crypto-to-crypto trades.This means that they do not accept real-world money, such as U.S Dollars (USD) or Euros (EUR).The exchange was first created in 2017 and was originally located in China. However, as cryptocurrency laws are very strict in China, the exchange has since moved to Japan, a country that loves digital currency!
This Line Is Critical For Bitcoin + Binance Scandal
In this Videos you will learn how to; 1. what is money 2. different b/w fiat money and bitcoin 3. blockchain technology and it use cases 4 DEFI 5. Introducti... Thanks for watching! In this video I show you how to transfer money from Coinbase over to Binance in order to buy smaller alt coins! Be sure to leave a like ... #bitcoin #like #cryptocurrency #news #btc #ethereum #eth #cryptocurrency #litecoin #altcoin #altcoins #eos #forex #money #best #trading #bitcoinmining #invest #trader #cryptocurrencies #top # ... Bienvenido! Si te gusto el video dale Like y Suscribite! Hi there, on this channel I make videos on: • Stock Investing • Basic Financial Advice • Best Stocks... Bienvenido! Si te gusto el video dale Like y Suscribite! Hi there, on this channel I make videos on: • Stock Investing • Basic Financial Advice • Best Stocks... Bienvenido! Si te gusto el video dale Like y Suscribite! Hi there, on this channel I make videos on: • Stock Investing • Basic Financial Advice • Best Stocks... CZ Binance makes the biggest mistake of his life!? This stranger than fiction story, involves CZ, Binance, Bitcoin, P2P Trading, China, Alipay, WeChat & the censorship of crypto media news outlets ...